Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 23.863836 26.066602 28.468128 31.296310 34.555989 38.219779 42.684314
2025-08-17 20.481640 23.448161 26.920467 31.344839 36.921989 43.846767 53.308925
2025-08-24 17.997752 21.340664 25.471583 31.076454 38.691834 49.018687 64.746928
2025-08-31 16.191514 19.737749 24.314699 30.857405 40.342874 54.278645 77.856242
2025-09-07 14.786788 18.433418 23.310850 30.597163 41.777425 59.451618 92.571103
2025-09-14 13.716584 17.429228 22.550377 30.505270 43.361089 65.152348 110.430867
2025-09-21 12.772870 16.488291 21.746779 30.191394 44.473397 70.269851 129.494774
2025-09-28 12.367124 16.254039 21.920414 31.382983 48.291110 81.374952 168.260660
2025-10-05 11.663065 15.517502 21.251976 31.094492 49.391898 87.406336 198.628183
2025-10-12 11.083269 14.914503 20.723823 30.957772 50.728239 94.351459 237.625241
2025-10-19 10.679604 14.542586 20.518233 31.341908 53.148100 104.657394 299.423019
2025-10-26 10.204288 14.023982 20.025823 31.139728 54.306885 112.259836 361.292593
2025-11-02 9.757771 13.532011 19.554618 30.955765 55.561057 120.940079 445.903770
2025-11-09 9.396033 13.151845 19.241365 31.038653 57.460992 132.520236 577.690764
2025-11-16 9.010681 12.709495 18.786547 30.790673 58.545009 142.209811 732.337418
2025-11-23 8.664677 12.310276 18.375680 30.582402 59.695977 152.882912 951.195786
2025-11-30 8.340419 11.928030 17.966065 30.329240 60.690888 163.710471 1254.703901
2025-12-07 8.065429 11.612209 17.651953 30.240280 62.115732 177.325586 1763.312154
2025-12-14 7.780482 11.264464 17.255661 29.931206 62.880076 188.822956 2458.514585
2025-12-21 7.711899 11.278881 17.523802 31.108062 68.216235 226.711620 5935.461178
2025-12-28 7.462057 10.968267 17.161732 30.823455 69.106999 242.703270 10740.591000
2026-01-04 7.246742 10.707356 16.877348 30.688569 70.458663 263.127218 26370.513337
2026-01-11 7.104506 10.567144 16.814717 31.067852 73.608353 299.345023 313104.526657